Global Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons Market: 5.7M tons and $14.9B in 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global market for unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons is expected to see growth in both volume and value terms from 2023 to 2030, with a projected increase in market volume to 5.7M tons and market value to $14.9B by the end of 2030. China, the United States, and Belgium are some of the leading consumers and producers of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons, with significant growth rates in both production and consumption. The United States remains the largest exporter of these hydrocarbons, with Iran and South Africa also playing major roles in the market. Overall, the market is poised for steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2023, approx. 4.9M tons of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons were consumed worldwide; growing by 4.1% against the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a slight downturn. Global consumption peaked at 5.8M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons market size stood at $11.9B in 2023, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, saw a mild decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the market value increased by 3.4%. Global consumption peaked at $14.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (893K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons consumption, comprising approx. 18% of total volume. Moreover, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (440K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Belgium (334K tons), with a 6.8% share.

In China, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+0.6% per year) and Belgium (-5.5% per year).

In value terms, the largest unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons markets worldwide were China ($2.9B), India ($1.7B) and Belgium ($528M), with a combined 43% share of the global market. The United States, Japan, Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, France, Italy, the Czech Republic and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +20.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons per capita consumption in 2023 were Belgium (29 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (16 kg per person) and the Czech Republic (10 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +20.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2023, the amount of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons produced worldwide amounted to 5M tons, leveling off at 2022. Overall, production, however, showed a mild decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 5.7M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons production stood at $10.3B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a mild contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 3.9%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $13B. From 2015 to 2023, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (790K tons), the United States (782K tons) and Iran (340K tons), together accounting for 38% of global production. South Africa, Belgium, India, Italy, Japan, Canada, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +6.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2023, global unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons imports rose sharply to 2M tons, surging by 11% on 2022 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 16%. Global imports peaked at 2.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons imports reduced to $3.1B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 23%. Global imports peaked at $3.2B in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States (262K tons), Belgium (208K tons), India (190K tons), the United Arab Emirates (163K tons), China (137K tons), Singapore (132K tons), France (99K tons), the Netherlands (98K tons), Thailand (94K tons), South Korea (90K tons), Canada (89K tons) and Spain (68K tons) represented roughly 82% of total imports in 2023.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +27.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($387M), Belgium ($338M) and India ($275M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 33% of global imports. China, the Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore, France, Spain, South Korea, Canada and the United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 46%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +15.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons import price stood at $1,545 per ton in 2023, waning by -14.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a slight curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by 32%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,800 per ton, and then shrank in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($1,948 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($712 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+1.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Unsaturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2023, overseas shipments of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons increased by 0.3% to 2M tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when exports increased by 18% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons exports reduced to $2.9B in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +43.2% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $3.3B in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports By Country

The United States was the major exporter of unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 717K tons, which was near 36% of total exports in 2023. Iran (293K tons) held a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by South Africa (13%), Belgium (8.6%) and Canada (7.2%). The following exporters - Saudi Arabia (80K tons), Brazil (74K tons), the Netherlands (68K tons), Singapore (58K tons) and China (34K tons) - together made up 16% of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, the Netherlands (+16.9%), Belgium (+9.9%), Iran (+9.9%), China (+9.3%) and Singapore (+7.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.9% from 2013-2023. Saudi Arabia, Canada and South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Brazil (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+11 p.p.), Iran (+6.6 p.p.), Belgium (+3.9 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Saudi Arabia (-1.7 p.p.), Canada (-3 p.p.), Brazil (-4.8 p.p.) and South Africa (-5.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($999M) remains the largest unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons supplier worldwide, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by South Africa ($415M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 13% share.

In the United States, unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons exports increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Africa (-0.4% per year) and Belgium (+10.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons export price stood at $1,459 per ton in 2023, falling by -11.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average export price increased by 23% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1,641 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($2,394 per ton), while Iran ($590 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform