Dried Grapes Market

The article discusses the global dried grapes market, predicting an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to decelerate slightly, with CAGR projected at +0.1% for volume and +2.4% for value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, consumption and production saw a slight decrease, with the United States, Turkey, and Iran leading in consumption and production volumes. Import and export volumes also decreased slightly in 2022, with Turkey being the key exporter. The article provides detailed insights into trends, growth rates, and value dynamics in the global dried grapes market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dried grapes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dried Grapes

After eight years of growth, consumption of dried grapes decreased by -3.3% to 1.5M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

The global dried grapes market size fell to $3.1B in 2022, with a decrease of -4.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $3.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (307K tons), Turkey (170K tons) and Iran (101K tons), together comprising 38% of global consumption. The UK, Argentina, Germany, China, Greece, the Netherlands, Syrian Arab Republic, Kazakhstan, Japan and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +19.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($880M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Turkey ($298M). It was followed by the UK.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States totaled +3.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (-2.8% per year) and the UK (-5.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of dried grapes per capita consumption in 2022 were Greece (4.6 kg per person), the Netherlands (2.4 kg per person) and Syrian Arab Republic (2.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +18.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Dried Grapes

After eight years of growth, production of dried grapes decreased by -0.8% to 1.6M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, dried grapes production declined to $3.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $3.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Turkey (424K tons), the United States (349K tons) and Iran (229K tons), together comprising 62% of global production. Argentina, Uzbekistan, Chile, Afghanistan, South Africa, Greece, China, Syrian Arab Republic and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +11.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Dried Grapes

Global dried grapes imports declined to 807K tons in 2022, with a decrease of -3.1% against the previous year. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 894K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, dried grapes imports shrank slightly to $1.6B in 2022. Overall, imports recorded a mild decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $1.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The UK (85K tons), Germany (67K tons), the Netherlands (53K tons), Kazakhstan (43K tons), Japan (31K tons), Brazil (30K tons), India (27K tons), the United States (26K tons), France (26K tons), Turkey (24K tons), Canada (24K tons) and China (23K tons) represented roughly 57% of total imports in 2022. Australia (21K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +31.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dried grapes importing markets worldwide were the UK ($158M), Germany ($135M) and the Netherlands ($104M), together accounting for 25% of global imports. Japan, India, Canada, France, Brazil, the United States, China, Turkey, Australia and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

Among the main importing countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +26.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average dried grapes import price stood at $1,937 per ton in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,335 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($3,120 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($465 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Dried Grapes

In 2022, shipments abroad of dried grapes increased by 1.5% to 898K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 9.5%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 915K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried grapes exports reduced slightly to $1.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a slight curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $1.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Turkey represented the key exporter of dried grapes in the world, with the volume of exports recording 279K tons, which was near 31% of total exports in 2022. Iran (130K tons) took a 14% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Uzbekistan (9.3%), Afghanistan (7.7%), the United States (7.6%), Chile (7.1%) and South Africa (6.3%).

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to dried grapes exports from Turkey stood at +2.2%. At the same time, Afghanistan (+13.0%), South Africa (+8.4%), Iran (+2.1%) and Uzbekistan (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Afghanistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Chile (-1.3%) and the United States (-6.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Uzbekistan (+9.3 p.p.), Afghanistan (+5 p.p.), South Africa (+3 p.p.) and Turkey (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Chile (-2.4 p.p.) and the United States (-9.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($478M) remains the largest dried grapes supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($226M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Iran, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-5.2% per year) and Iran (-0.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average dried grapes export price amounted to $1,820 per ton, reducing by -5.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a noticeable reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $2,349 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,304 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($1,005 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform