Fish Meals And Pellet Market

The global fish meals and pellet market is projected to decline in consumption over the next eight years, with a forecasted decrease in volume to 136K tons by 2030 and a contraction in value to $897M. Global consumption reached 164K tons in 2022, with fluctuating trend patterns. Production of fish meals and pellets increased by 2.6% in 2022, while imports declined by -36.8% and exports decreased by -26.6% compared to the previous year. Countries like Myanmar, the United States, China, and Japan played significant roles in consumption, production, imports, and exports of fish meals and pellets.

Market Forecast

The fish meals and pellet market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -2.3% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 136K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $897M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Flours, Meals And Pellets Of Fish

Global fish meals and pellet consumption reached 164K tons in 2022, standing approx. at 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global fish meals and pellet market value shrank modestly to $944M in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $991M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Myanmar (27K tons), the United States (26K tons) and China (25K tons), together accounting for 47% of global consumption. Pakistan, Japan, Thailand, Mauritania, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa, Norway, the Philippines and Angola lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +14.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($176M), Japan ($154M) and Myanmar ($136M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 49% of the global market. The United States, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Norway, Angola, Mauritania and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Norway, with a CAGR of +14.9%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of fish meals and pellet per capita consumption was registered in Mauritania (1,457 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Norway (563 kg per 1000 persons), Myanmar (494 kg per 1000 persons) and Thailand (127 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of fish meals and pellet was estimated at 21 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the fish meals and pellet per capita consumption in Mauritania stood at +3.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Norway (+12.2% per year) and Myanmar (-0.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Flours, Meals And Pellets Of Fish

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of flours, meals and pellets of fish, which increased by 2.6% to 171K tons in 2022. In general, production continues to indicate a modest increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 4.1% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, fish meals and pellet production reached $949M in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 8.8% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $1.1B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (28K tons), Myanmar (28K tons) and the United States (26K tons), together accounting for 48% of global production. Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Mauritania, Russia, Vietnam, Norway, South Africa, the Philippines and Iceland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Norway (with a CAGR of +6.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Flours, Meals And Pellets Of Fish

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of flours, meals and pellets of fish, when their volume decreased by -36.8% to 20K tons. Over the period under review, imports saw a perceptible curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 17%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 36K tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, fish meals and pellet imports declined to $291M in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 16%. Global imports peaked at $327M in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Imports By Country

Japan was the largest importer of flours, meals and pellets of fish in the world, with the volume of imports resulting at 9.2K tons, which was approx. 46% of total imports in 2022. Denmark (1.4K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7% share, followed by Sweden (5.9%) and Germany (5.1%). China (817 tons), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (634 tons), the Netherlands (516 tons), the United States (498 tons), Togo (441 tons), Russia (429 tons) and Greece (306 tons) took a minor share of total imports.

Imports into Japan decreased at an average annual rate of -1.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Togo (+18.8%), Germany (+12.5%), Denmark (+5.1%), Russia (+2.7%) and Greece (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Togo emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +18.8% from 2012-2022. The United States and China experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-2.5%), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (-7.7%) and Sweden (-11.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Japan, Denmark, Germany and Togo increased by +9.3, +4.2, +4 and +2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($158M) constitutes the largest market for imported flours, meals and pellets of fish worldwide, comprising 54% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($34M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Democratic People's Republic of Korea, with a 4.3% share.

In Japan, fish meals and pellet imports decreased by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: China (+17.9% per year) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (-4.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average fish meals and pellet import price stood at $14,637 per ton in 2022, rising by 41% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, fish meals and pellet import price increased by +50.4% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($41,779 per ton), while Togo ($246 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+17.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Flours, Meals And Pellets Of Fish

Global fish meals and pellet exports plummeted to 27K tons in 2022, with a decrease of -26.6% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, exports showed a abrupt shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 88K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, fish meals and pellet exports rose slightly to $286M in 2022. Overall, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $303M. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Vietnam (4.1K tons), China (4.1K tons) and Indonesia (3.1K tons) represented roughly 42% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Iceland (1.9K tons), Peru (1.6K tons), the United States (1.4K tons), Canada (1.3K tons) and Denmark (1.3K tons), together committing a 28% share of total exports. The following exporters - Norway (873 tons), Yemen (785 tons), Argentina (596 tons), the Netherlands (584 tons) and Myanmar (520 tons) - together made up 13% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +47.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fish meals and pellet supplying countries worldwide were Indonesia ($54M), Vietnam ($54M) and China ($46M), together comprising 54% of global exports. Peru, Canada, Iceland, the United States, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Argentina, Myanmar and Yemen lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Argentina, with a CAGR of +23.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fish meals and pellet export price stood at $10,691 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 71% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Peru ($18,949 per ton), while Yemen ($656 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+15.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform