Global Ammonium Nitrate Market to Witness Steady Growth with a CAGR of 3.0% through 2030

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The global market for ammonium nitrate is poised for continued growth driven by increasing demand worldwide. With a projected CAGR of +3.0% in volume and +5.5% in value from 2023 to 2030, the market is expected to reach 31M tons in volume and $15.8B in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for ammonium nitrate worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 31M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.8B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Ammonium Nitrate

Global ammonium nitrate consumption reduced slightly to 25M tons in 2023, declining by -2.3% on the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 7.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 26M tons in 2022, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

The global ammonium nitrate market revenue reduced to $10.9B in 2023, shrinking by -3.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $11.3B, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

Russia (8M tons) remains the largest ammonium nitrate consuming country worldwide, accounting for 32% of total volume. Moreover, ammonium nitrate consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Ukraine (1.8M tons), fourfold. Saudi Arabia (1.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6% share.

In Russia, ammonium nitrate consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ukraine (-0.0% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+6.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest ammonium nitrate markets worldwide were Saudi Arabia ($2.6B), Russia ($2.4B) and Poland ($669M), with a combined 53% share of the global market. Brazil, the UK, Ukraine, India, Romania, the United States, Tunisia, Canada, China and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

China, with a CAGR of +35.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of ammonium nitrate per capita consumption in 2023 were Russia (55 kg per person), Tunisia (51 kg per person) and Ukraine (42 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +34.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2023, after five years of growth, there was decline in production of ammonium nitrate, when its volume decreased by -0.7% to 25M tons. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 25M tons in 2022, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate production amounted to $10.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 26% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $10.8B. From 2022 to 2023, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Russia (11M tons) remains the largest ammonium nitrate producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 44% of total volume. Moreover, ammonium nitrate production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Ukraine (1.6M tons), sevenfold. Saudi Arabia (1.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.8% share.

In Russia, ammonium nitrate production increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ukraine (-3.2% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+1.6% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2023, overseas purchases of ammonium nitrate decreased by -5.2% to 7.7M tons, falling for the fourth year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports continue to indicate a perceptible setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 9.5M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports contracted rapidly to $3.5B in 2023. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when imports increased by 47%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $4.3B, and then fell notably in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Brazil (1.1M tons), distantly followed by India (595K tons) and Canada (401K tons) were the largest importers of ammonium nitrate, together committing 28% of total imports. Romania (341K tons), Peru (312K tons), the United States (295K tons), Kazakhstan (255K tons), Morocco (244K tons), Ukraine (218K tons), Lithuania (216K tons), the UK (200K tons), Australia (141K tons) and Zambia (131K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +23.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonium nitrate importing markets worldwide were India ($304M), Brazil ($296M) and Peru ($169M), with a combined 22% share of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +27.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average ammonium nitrate import price amounted to $454 per ton, declining by -13.6% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated slight growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, ammonium nitrate import price increased by +82.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 52% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $525 per ton, and then contracted in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($815 per ton), while Brazil ($261 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+6.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Ammonium Nitrate

In 2023, the amount of ammonium nitrate exported worldwide reduced slightly to 7.8M tons, leveling off at the previous year. In general, exports saw a slight slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 9.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports fell significantly to $3.5B in 2023. Overall, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 50% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $4.8B in 2022, and then contracted significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Russia represented the major exporter of ammonium nitrate in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 3.1M tons, which was approx. 39% of total exports in 2023. The United States (705K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Georgia (449K tons), Bulgaria (395K tons), Lithuania (365K tons) and Oman (364K tons). All these countries together took approx. 29% share of total exports. Sweden (288K tons), Egypt (280K tons), Canada (226K tons), Poland (212K tons), South Africa (178K tons), Uzbekistan (146K tons) and Chile (134K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of ammonium nitrate. At the same time, Oman (+57.5%), Egypt (+12.0%), Bulgaria (+8.6%), the United States (+6.1%) and South Africa (+4.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Oman emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +57.5% from 2013-2023. Poland, Georgia and Sweden experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Lithuania (-1.7%), Canada (-3.9%), Chile (-5.3%) and Uzbekistan (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+4.8 p.p.), Oman (+4.6 p.p.), Russia (+4.2 p.p.), Bulgaria (+3.2 p.p.), Egypt (+2.6 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($1.3B) remains the largest ammonium nitrate supplier worldwide, comprising 37% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($243M), with a 6.9% share of global exports. It was followed by Sweden, with a 5.1% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia amounted to +1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+7.3% per year) and Sweden (+3.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average ammonium nitrate export price amounted to $447 per ton, declining by -26.8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, enjoyed modest growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average export price increased by 62%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $610 per ton, and then contracted notably in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uzbekistan ($652 per ton), while Canada ($322 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+16.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform